Outside of a few plate appearances in 2019, some infield drills with a massive leg brace, and an awkward media session just this week, there is not much evidence to suggest that Jed Lowrie is alive. Somehow, with the New York Mets, this is woefully unsurprising.
A history of day-to-day nightmares, an infestation of injury bugs, and a general mishandling of their stars’ health has run the Mets out of luck with all things related to the Injured List. It seems, at least, New York is prepared now, making a concerted effort to bolster the depth of their roster. This offseason saw General Manager Brodie Van Waganen replace Zack Wheeler with Michael Wacha and Rick Porcello, trade for Jake Marisnick, and acquire fringe Major League talents like René Rivera, Matt Adams, and Eduardo Núñez through free agency.
With opening day around the corner, a series of unanswered questions revolve around two Mets who have failed to make any real impact since 2018: Jed Lowrie and Yoenis Céspedes. We know the story with Céspedes—a star’s offseason rehab derailed by a wild boar. Nobody ever said being a Mets fan would be easy. With Lowrie, however, we have more questions than we do answers, in part because the veteran infielder won’t give us any. Lowrie returned to the National League prior to the 2019 season, joining the Mets with a 2-year, $20 million deal. A seemingly minor injury was deemed just that by management, and additional details failed to surface until his return in September. Even then, Mets fans were largely left without definitive answers.
Fast-forward to spring training 2020, and Lowrie remains on the bench, sidelined by something with ambiguous seriousness. Tomorrow turns to next week, next week turns to Opening Day, Opening Day turns to… the All-Star break? We simply don’t know. Fans and player health typically don’t mesh well, but Mets fans are hungry for a competitive team, and established Major Leaguers are an obvious part of that. It’s hard to blame them for their frustration, especially with preternaturally few details becoming public.
Taking a step back, even without the two injured veterans, New York is poised to push for the NL East title. Jostling with the Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, and Washington Nationals makes their title quest more difficult than any other division’s, but this roster can win games. If the bullpen bounces back, the pitching staff can rival just about anyone’s in baseball. A lineup that was already deep saw its depth improve this winter, creating a group with enough firepower to potentially overcome one of the league’s worst defensive units. So, just how meaningful are our favorite injured Mets?
Jed Lowrie
As we work to confirm Lowrie’s existence, it is important to note who Lowrie is, and what should be expected of him. Now 35, Lowrie has a history as a utility infielder, but will likely stick to the hot corner and second base this time around. With lower-body injuries and age catching up to him, Lowrie should not see much time at short. His career -3.9 UZR at shortstop further supports such a notion.
It’s worth noting that Lowrie does have some experience at first base, though it totaled 28 innings a mere decade ago. In an emergency situation, or if his range sees substantial regression, it is possible we see him backup Pete Alonso.
Anyhow, he is strikingly average as a defender, garnering a career 1.7 UZR at second base and 1.5 UZR at third. His best defensive season actually came fairly recently, in 2018, where his 6.1 UZR at second base was the fourth-highest score among Athletics with over 1,000 innings. His ability to play multiple positions adds value to his game, but regression seems imminent, and he projects as a below-average, though not atrocious, defender. He’ll fit right in with the Mets.
At the plate, we see where Lowrie made his money. He is a lifetime .261 hitter, with a slightly above-average wOBA of .326 and a mediocre .295 BABIP. A switch hitter, Lowrie can put up quality at bats against seemingly anyone, posting quality K% and BB% numbers, at 16.6% and 9.8% respectively.
These quality at-bats have piled up over the course of Lowrie’s career, in part subsequent to comfortably favorable plate discipline metrics. On pitches outside of the strike zone, Lowrie has swung at 24.5%, below the average of 30%. On said swings, he’s made contact on 72%, a healthy amount above the league average of 66%. Pitches in the zone saw a similar fate, as Lowrie swung at 71.1% of those, making contact on 89.1%, both above the average of 65% and 87%.
While his contact numbers seem favorable, the 2005 draftee has tended to sport low power metrics. His top two totals in home runs are 23 and 16 (2018 and 2012), and over his 11 years and change in the bigs, he’s knocked only 104 balls over the wall. His career 106 wRC+ strays positively above the mean, and he has surpassed 35 doubles three times. He’s never been asked to be anything close to a primary power threat, but the uptick in power from 2018 is an optimistic datapoint for his presumed return.
In terms of what to expect of Lowrie, there are both stylistic and statistical trends to watch for. As a switch hitter, it is no surprise to see his total spray chart is greatly dispersed. Interestingly enough, however, while he is a spray hitter as a lefty, he appears to go to the opposite field at a much higher frequency while standing in the right-handed batter’s box. Additionally, like (almost) all hitters, he is at his best over the middle of the plate. Rather than turning on inside pitches in an attempt to pull the ball, Lowrie prefers to extend his arms and dominate the outside part of the plate. From a power standpoint, he produces more as a lefty, though he hits for a higher average as a righty (.275 to .256).
Moving forward, his ZiPS projection paints a picture of what may be to come in 2020. Per this projection, Lowrie is expected to hit .243, with 13 home runs, a .303 wOBA, .283 BABIP, 90 wRC+, and unfavorable shifts in his strikeout and walk percentages. Projected to slash .243/.318/.387, Lowrie seems to be an average bench asset. His projection of 1 Win Above Replacement (WAR), surrounds him with names like Eric Thames, Justin Smoak, Rio Ruiz, and Ji-Man Choi, all names of players projected to start and contribute for other Major League ball clubs.
Continuing to use WAR, it becomes clear that one player’s projections, without context, loses its meaning. When contrasted with players he could replace on the roster, Lowrie’s value is shown. If he were to make the roster, it would likely be over the likes of either Eduardo Núñez or Luis Guillorme (Roster Resource). Núñez is projected to lose the Mets 0.3 games this year, while Guillorme, the best defender of the three—by far—is projected to win New York 0.4 games over the course of the year. Both Núñez and Guillorme can play various infield positions, though Núñez also brings outfield experience to the table.
Twenty-six man rosters will be introduced this season, but the Mets will still have to make the decision to keep two of Lowrie, Núñez, and Guillorme. Given the money he is owed, the lack of minor league options available, and a New York tendency to hold on to lost battles, Lowrie will almost certainly be on the Major League roster, when not on the Injured List.
Ultimately, Lowrie presents an intriguing set of skills, as he can help the team in multiple ways, both at the plate and in the field. However, his offensive skills are projected to decrease, and a multitude of factors should prove detrimental to his defense. Taking into account his seemingly bubonic leg situation, there are not many reasons to be optimistic. Still, he should be, when healthy, an average offensive bench piece, and with a 37-year-old Robinson Cano manning second base and semi-limited depth options at third, his ability to play multiple positions remains important. Depending on who he replaces, Lowrie should bring somewhere between 0.6 and 1.3 wins. In the toughest division in baseball, that will matter.
Yoenis Céspedes
No matter how the rest of his contract plays out, Yoenis Céspedes should remain a beloved New York sports figure. Without his 2015 rampage, there is no playoff Daniel Murphy, no crazy rallies in Washington, no World Series appearance. Yet, the New York media quickly forgets the good, and Céspedes will be pressed to produce.
A series of lower-body injuries has derailed his largest MLB contract. Bad luck and a knack for getting hurt has taken the now 34-year-old off the field at a concerning rate—he hasn’t played in more than 81 regular season games since 2016. As spring training rolls on, Céspedes has been hesitant to talk to the media, and it is hard to blame him. While we have seen neither in a live-action game just yet, it seems more likely we see Céspedes on the field first. How long he stays on the field will be the result of multiple factors, including playing time, but staying healthy has been an issue for years now.
Assuming he makes real-life appearances close to Opening Day, it would be a surprise to see him play anywhere other than left field. While it is possible he plays some innings in right, he is at his best and easily most comfortable in left, and will never see center again. Theories on how to keep Céspedes on the field, while limiting defensive downfalls, have led to conversations about him playing the infield, though that isn’t all that realistic.
His play in left field has been on the decline from its height in 2014 (15.1 UZR/150), posting 13.4, 4, -5.8, and -6.5 UZR/150 seasons since. With a potential lack of mobility, his defensive floor is insufferably bad. His elite arm strength should keep him viable, but he is certainly not an upgrade defensively for an outfield that already struggles to back the pitching staff.
As a hitter, we know what Céspedes did bring to the table. That will almost certainly be different from what he will bring to the table in 2020. Tendency-wise, Céspedes is rather stable, assuming his rehab did not include a drastic change to his plate approach. Mets fans know how much of a free swinger he can be, culminating in a 36.2% O-Swing%. To his downfall, his contact percentage on those pitches is 64.7%, a number residing below the league average. Inside the zone, his 67.4% swing percentage is only slightly above the league average of 65%. He hovers around league average on these swings, at 86%. His 21% strikeout percentage is mediocre, but better than he’s been given credit for. Logically, though, his walk rate is well below-average.
The bona fide power threat has consistently put up wRC+ numbers above the average of 100, capping out at 136, and totaling 124 over his seven Major League seasons. On a similar note, he sports an above-average wOBA of .351. Like Lowrie, though, his career BABIP (.305) is much less impressive.
His ZiPS projection is somewhat skewed by the limitation of 63 games, but grants him 13 home runs (in half of the games of Lowrie), a .257 batting average, an increase in both strikeouts and walks, along with a continuation of his wOBA/BABIP relationship. He is projected for 108 wRC+ and 0.9 WAR.
His WAR becomes important once again when looking at his reserved spot on the roster. Unlike Lowrie, there is no controversy about whether or not he’s earned a roster spot. His name value alone is enough for the Wilpons to keep him in Queens. The important players to note here will have playing time affected by Céspedes in one form or another. These include Dominic Smith, J.D. Davis, Jake Marisnick, and Brandon Nimmo. Their WAR, respectively, are projected to be 0.3, 0.9, 0.8, and 1.8.
The easiest one-for-one roster swap would be Céspedes for Dominic Smith, as some combination of McNeil, Davis, Núñez, and Lowrie would compete for playing time as a backup first baseman. None of those are adequate fits at first base, but Smith, as talented as he is, does not have a path to starting. The fan-favorite is also a candidate to be traded, possibly in a deal for a bullpen arm or an upgrade in center field, which subsequently hurts Marisnick’s prospects.
Assuming Smith is the odd man out, a particular set of opportunities present themselves. For one, Davis and Céspedes can platoon in left field, creating the worst defensive platoon the sport has seen in some time. While both are right-handed, Céspedes has historically performed better against similar-handed pitchers, and Davis excelled against left-handers. While not something in the realm of realistic possibilities, a look at their splits would suggest a home/away platoon, in which Davis hits only at Citi Field and Céspedes hides from angry fans.
If New York does decide to demote Jake Marisnick to AAA Syracuse, an unlikely situation due to waiver obstacles and resources poured into a trade to acquire him, Céspedes could in theory take his spot on the roster. This would leave Michael Conforto to step in to center field in Nimmo’s absence, and while Conforto is not a bad defender, this would easily create the worst defensive outfield in the league, if accounting for the defensive value of bench pieces as well.
Céspedes brings a dosage of power that would greatly help either the lineup or the bench, but his defense would not be much of an upgrade.If swapped directly, he would boost the Mets projected win total by 0.6 (replacing Smith) or 0.1 (replacing Marisnick). A platoon with Davis has the best chance to maximize this roster’s potential, by maximizing the effectiveness of multiple talents. A healthy Céspedes can bring New York somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 wins.
If both Lowrie and Céspedes get ample playing time, and are fortunate enough to stay healthy, the Mets could see an improvement of three wins to their projected record. Again, the race for the NL East crown is sure to be competitive, and the Mets will look to gain any win they can. With the organizational health reputation the Mets possess, staying healthy will be critical. Especially in Céspedes’ case, where New York’s AAA depth is poor, staying on the field can prove huge dividends for a competing team. We may not have concrete proof of Lowrie’s existence, and Céspedes is one boar fight away from retirement, but cautious optimism is creeping back into Queens, just in time for an exciting race to the playoffs. It may not make or break their season, but the two mystery men certainly hold some power in the Mets’ playoff hopes.
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